Video conferencing and video on demand [will] not be appreciable until 2005. Furthermore, e-mail would not be very large until 2020 to rival voice traffic.
Predictor: Roberts, Lawrence G.
Prediction, in context:In the keynote speech at InternetWorld 1995, pioneering computer scientist Gordon Bell, formerly of Digital Equipment Corporation and then a research leader at Microsoft, paraphrases a 1992 prediction made by Internet pioneer Larry Roberts:”Larry Roberts, one of the creators of ARPAnet, [made a prediction] in 1992. In 1992 the traffic being carried by the NSF backbone was not even forecast. He projected that video conferencing and video on demand [will] not be appreciable until 2005. Furthermore, e-mail would not be very large until 2020 to rival voice traffic. Internet 2.0 is upsetting everyone’s forecasts.”
Biography:Lawrence G. (Larry) Roberts, met and was inspired by J.C.R. Licklider in 1964 to work on building a wide-area communications network. In 1965, the director of the IPTO contracted Roberts to develop a network. Thomas Marill programmed the network. In1966, Roberts and Marill published what amounted to an ARPANET plan Ð it was titled “Toward a Cooperative Network of Shared Computers.” Roberts joined ARPA in 1966 as IPTO chief scientist. He led 1967 design discussions at an ARPA meeting in Michigan at which the standards for transmission of characters, and identification and authentication of users were first described. In 1967, he presented a paper that summarized the complete ARPANET plan at an ACM symposium in Tennessee. In 1968, he wrote and completed a program plan titled “Resource Sharing Computer Networks” which was approved June 21, and work on ARPANET began. In 1969, he became director of IPTO. He wrote the first e-mail management program to list, selectively read, file, forward and respond to messages in 1972. In 1973, he became CEO of Telenet, the first packet-switching network carrier. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1992
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: TV/Films/Video
Name of publication: InternetWorld 1995 Conference
Title, headline, chapter name: It’s Bandwidth and Symmetry, Stupid!
Quote Type: Paraphrase
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://research.microsoft.com/~gbell/IntWorld/tsld002.htm
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney