To my mind, it is likely that what we now understand as the mass media will be gone within 10 years. Vanished, without a trace … Who will push The New York Times? The answer, I think, is technology … Consumers will naturally want better information. They’ll demand it, and they’ll be willing to pay for it. There is going to be – I would argue there already is – a market for extremely high-quality information.
Predictor: Crichton, Michael
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, best-selling author Michael Crichton, who bases most of his fiction novels on scientific fact, projects that current media forms will soon be surpassed by newer models. Crichton writes: ”To my mind, it is likely that what we now understand as the mass media will be gone within 10 years. Vanished, without a trace … Who will be the GM or IBM of the ’90s? The next great American institution to find itself obsolete and outdated, while obstinately refusing to change? I suspect one answer would be The New York Times and the commercial networks. Other institutions have been pushed to improve quality. Ford now makes a better car than it has any time in my life; we can thank Toyota and Nissan for that. But who will push The New York Times? The answer, I think, is technology … Information today is vitally important. We live by it … Online databases charge by the minute. As the link between payment and information becomes more explicit, consumers will naturally want better information. They’ll demand it, and they’ll be willing to pay for it. There is going to be – I would argue there already is – a market for extremely high-quality information, what quality experts would call ‘six-sigma information’ … such rigor is unknown in the media. None of the traditional media have begun to address this need …Wwhat if somebody offered me a service with high-quality information? A service in which all the facts were true, the quotes weren’t piped, the statistics were presented by someone who knew something about statistics? What would that be worth? A lot. Because good information has value. The notion that it’s filler between the ads is outdated.”
Biography:Michael Crichton, an extremely successful novelist (“Jurassic Park,” “Prey”) based much of his popular fiction on his study of real-world science and technology trends. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Journalism/Media
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Mediasaurus: Today’s Mass Media is Tomorrow’s Fossil Fuel. Michael Crichton is Mad as Hell, and He’s Not Going to Take it Any More
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.04/mediasaurus.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney