Network architecture will be capable of carrying hundreds of channels of programming into every home, as well as custom programs selected by individual households. If the networks are engineered properly, every subscriber should be able to view a different program, even if all are watching at the same time. Initially, almost all of the bandwidth will be used to bring signals into the home, with very little being used to carry traffic back “upstream.” With proper upgrades, a hybrid network will also be capable of accepting and switching telephone traffic. Over time, the network can be expanded to support full two-way communication applications like video telephony.
Predictor: Kapor, Mitchell
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, Mitchell Kapor, a co-founder of the Electronic Freedom Foundation, writes: ”Today’s separate cable systems will be joined via regional hubs, which, in turn, will be interconnected to form a national network. High-capacity video file servers capable of storing thousands of hours of programming will be attached at the regional level. Existing cable systems will be replaced by high-capacity, noiseless fiber-optic cable that will reach from the system’s head into each neighborhood. This ‘fiber-to-the-node’ architecture will serve groups of 200 to 1,500 homes. The last segment of the network, from the node to the home, will use existing coaxial cable. Time-Warner and TCI both plan to use this arrangement. This network architecture will be capable of carrying hundreds of channels of programming into every home, as well as custom programs selected by individual households. If the networks are engineered properly, every subscriber should be able to view a different program, even if all are watching at the same time. Initially, almost all of the bandwidth will be used to bring signals into the home, with very little being used to carry traffic back ‘upstream.’ With proper upgrades, a hybrid network will also be capable of accepting and switching telephone traffic. Over time, the network can be expanded to support full two-way communication applications like video telephony.”
Biography:Mitchell Kapor founded the Lotus Development Corporation and also founded the Electronic Frontier Foundation with WELL (Whole Earth ‘Lectronic Link) members John Perry Barlow and John Gilmore in 1990 in direct response to a threat to free speech. He was an outspoken supporter of open access to the Internet, and was asked to speak in many venues about the issue, including Congressional hearings. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Where is the Digital Highway Really Heading? The Case for a Jeffersonian Information Policy
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.03/kapor.on.nii_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney