Fiber optics is going to render bandwidth and hertz virtually free. This world is quite different from the world that assumes bandwidth scarcity. A dearth of spectrum has to be regulated and parceled out carefully by sensitive federal bureaucrats beset by tens of thousands of lawyers. That whole apparatus, both the technology of it – the huge switching fabric of the phone companies – and the legislative apparatus and all its bureaucracies and legal accessories, are going to be rendered almost worthless over the next 10 years.
Predictor: Gilder, George
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, executive editor Kevin Kelly interviews George Gilder, author of “Wealth and Poverty” and “Telecosm.” Kelly quotes Gilder: ”Fiber optics is going to render bandwidth and hertz virtually free. This world is quite different from the world that assumes bandwidth scarcity. A dearth of spectrum has to be regulated and parceled out carefully by sensitive federal bureaucrats beset by tens of thousands of lawyers. That whole apparatus, both the technology of it – the huge switching fabric of the phone companies – and the legislative apparatus and all its bureaucracies and legal accessories, are going to be rendered almost worthless over the next 10 years … in every industrial revolution, some key factor of production is drastically reduced in cost. Relative to the previous cost to achieve that function, the new factor is virtually free. Physical force in the industrial revolution became virtually free compared to its expense when it derived from animal muscle power and human muscle power. Suddenly you could do things you could not afford to do before.”
Biography:George Gilder was a pioneer the formulation of the theory of supply-side economics. In his major book “Microcosm” (1989), he explored the quantum roots of the new electronic technologies. His book “Life After Television,” published by W.W. Norton (1992), is a prophecy of computers and telecommunications displacing the broadcast-TV empire. He followed it with another classic, “Telecosm.” (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics
Subtopic: Government
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: George Gilder: When Bandwidth is Free: The Dark Fiber Interview
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.04/gilder_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney