The prediction, in brief:

My thesis is that bandwidth is going to be virtually free in the next era in the same way that transistors are in this era. It doesn’t mean there won’t be expensive technologies associated with the exploitation of bandwidth … but it does mean that people will have to use this bandwidth, they’ll have to waste bandwidth rather than economize on bandwidth. The wasters of bandwidth will win rather than the people who are developing exquisite new compression tools and all these other devices designed to exploit some limited bandwidth.

Predictor: Gilder, George

Prediction, in context:

In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, executive editor Kevin Kelly interviews George Gilder, author of “Wealth and Poverty” and “Telecosm.” Kelly quotes Gilder:”My thesis is that bandwidth is going to be virtually free in the next era in the same way that transistors are in this era. It doesn’t mean there won’t be expensive technologies associated with the exploitation of bandwidth – just as there are expensive computers employing transistors; but it does mean that people will have to use this bandwidth, they’ll have to waste bandwidth rather than economize on bandwidth. The wasters of bandwidth will win rather than the people who are developing exquisite new compression tools and all these other devices designed to exploit some limited bandwidth. One of the key ways you economize on bandwidth is switching. Switching has been the whole foundation of our communications systems. You run narrow-band wires to some switch and then switch the data to its destination in order to avoid using lots of bandwidth to broadcast signals to every terminal.”

Biography:

George Gilder was a pioneer the formulation of the theory of supply-side economics. In his major book “Microcosm” (1989), he explored the quantum roots of the new electronic technologies. His book “Life After Television,” published by W.W. Norton (1992), is a prophecy of computers and telecommunications displacing the broadcast-TV empire. He followed it with another classic, “Telecosm.” (Futurist/Consultant.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1993

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Bandwidth

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: George Gilder: When Bandwidth is Free: The Dark Fiber Interview

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.04/gilder_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney