The prediction, in brief:

There’s smartness all around the network, but the actual network should be essentially dumb glass. The fibersphere, as I call it … what you really want is dumb networks where all intelligence is on the fringes. You’ll have intelligent devices of various sorts that are easily reachable from the network but aren’t part of the actual fabric of the network.

Predictor: Gilder, George

Prediction, in context:

In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, executive editor Kevin Kelly interviews George Gilder, author of “Wealth and Poverty” and “Telecosm.” Kelly quotes Gilder:”There’s smartness all around the network, but the actual network should be essentially dumb glass. The fibersphere, as I call it. I think the mistake that the phone companies sometimes make is to think that they can keep up with the computer. What they call ‘network intelligence’ will usually appear as a bottleneck to a computer industry that’s rapidly rushing forward into new possibilities. So what you really want is dumb networks where all intelligence is on the fringes. You’ll have intelligent devices of various sorts that are easily reachable from the network but aren’t part of the actual fabric of the network.”

Biography:

George Gilder was a pioneer the formulation of the theory of supply-side economics. In his major book “Microcosm” (1989), he explored the quantum roots of the new electronic technologies. His book “Life After Television,” published by W.W. Norton (1992), is a prophecy of computers and telecommunications displacing the broadcast-TV empire. He followed it with another classic, “Telecosm.” (Futurist/Consultant.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1993

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: General

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: George Gilder: When Bandwidth is Free: The Dark Fiber Interview

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.04/gilder_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney