For computing functions … electronics will prevail; but for communications, photonics will prevail … Opto-electronics is very important. However, opto-electronics should not be in the middle of the network, it should be on the edges of the network where it links the computing functions to the communications functions.
Predictor: Gilder, George
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, executive editor Kevin Kelly interviews George Gilder, author of “Wealth and Poverty” and “Telecosm.” Kelly quotes Gilder: ”Electronics are not good for communications. Photons – optical computing – are. What makes photons so great for communication is they don’t interfere with each other. They collide and pass on unaffected. You can send them two-way, and they are not subject to electromagnetic disruption. Many signals can flow through one fiber. But the fact that photons don’t affect each other means they are cumbersome for computing, since you want interactions in computing. You need to have the charges affect one another – that’s the heart of computing. The heart of the transistor function is that you can control a bigger force with a smaller force. But photons don’t control each other. So for computing functions I still think that electronics will prevail; but for communications, photonics will prevail … Opto-electronics is very important. However, opto-electronics should not be in the middle of the network, it should be on the edges of the network where it links the computing functions to the communications functions.”
Biography:George Gilder was a pioneer the formulation of the theory of supply-side economics. In his major book “Microcosm” (1989), he explored the quantum roots of the new electronic technologies. His book “Life After Television,” published by W.W. Norton (1992), is a prophecy of computers and telecommunications displacing the broadcast-TV empire. He followed it with another classic, “Telecosm.” (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: George Gilder: When Bandwidth is Free: The Dark Fiber Interview
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.04/gilder_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney