There’s no excuse not to do ISDN today. It won’t detract from the fibersphere. But while they do ISDN, all-optical networks are going to be launched all over the place by different companies … My belief is that fiber network is going to get rapidly cheaper, so that we’re going to be able to do both it and ISDN perfectly well.
Predictor: Gilder, George
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, executive editor Kevin Kelly interviews George Gilder, author of “Wealth and Poverty” and “Telecosm.” Kelly quotes Gilder: ”The phone companies should do ISDN. We might as well get as much out of the existing copper switch system as we can. ISDN is already installed in all the new switches; it’s more a matter of getting the tariffs right so they can charge some reasonable amount for its use. There’s no excuse not to do ISDN today. It won’t detract from the fibersphere. But while they do ISDN, all-optical networks are going to be launched all over the place by different companies. Some people have this vision that either we devote our resources to ISDN, or we devote them to creating this fabulously expensive fiber network. My belief is that fiber network is going to get rapidly cheaper, so that we’re going to be able to do both it and ISDN perfectly well.”
Biography:George Gilder was a pioneer the formulation of the theory of supply-side economics. In his major book “Microcosm” (1989), he explored the quantum roots of the new electronic technologies. His book “Life After Television,” published by W.W. Norton (1992), is a prophecy of computers and telecommunications displacing the broadcast-TV empire. He followed it with another classic, “Telecosm.” (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: George Gilder: When Bandwidth is Free: The Dark Fiber Interview
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.04/gilder_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney