The prediction, in brief:

VR is extremely useful in scientific visualization and entertainment, and will be very significant for those niches. But as a tool for productively changing everyone’s relationship to computation, it has two crucial flaws. First, at the present time [1992], and probably for decades, it cannot produce a simulation of significant verisimilitude at reasonable cost. That means that users will not be fooled and the computer will not be out of the way. Second, and most importantly, it has the goal of fooling the user – of leaving the everyday physical world behind. This is at odds with the goal of better integrating the computer into human activities, since humans are of and in the everyday world.

Predictor: Weiser, Mark

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 article for Wired magazine, Howard Rheingold interviews research director Mark Weiser at Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (PARC). Rheingold writes:”In Weiser’s cosmology, the original ‘desktop’ graphical user interface does not go far enough to get out of the way of the user. Interfaces don’t do the job. Neither do agents. And certainly not virtual reality (VR). Weiser writes: ‘In its ultimate environment, VR causes the computer to become effectively invisible by taking over the human sensory and affector systems. VR is extremely useful in scientific visualization and entertainment, and will be very significant for those niches. But as a tool for productively changing everyone’s relationship to computation, it has two crucial flaws. First, at the present time [1992], and probably for decades, it cannot produce a simulation of significant verisimilitude at reasonable cost. That means that users will not be fooled and the computer will not be out of the way. Second, and most importantly, it has the goal of fooling the user – of leaving the everyday physical world behind. This is at odds with the goal of better integrating the computer into human activities, since humans are of and in the everyday world.'”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information

Subtopic: Virtual Reality

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: PARC is Back! After Fumbling the Future, Xerox PARC is Back With a Visionary New Director, Bright Researchers and Amazing New Technology

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.02/parc_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney