There are basically two domains where you can look to get a clue about the future. One is what I call low-bandwidth interactive: online services and the Internet. The second is high-bandwidth, the sort of bandwidth you get with CD-ROM, which is much faster than anything you get from online services. Too many people are having this big debate about whether the future in home devices is going to be more like the PC or the TV. The answer is you’re going to have both; people will have networks in their home, and the TV and PC will be some of the many peripherals on that network.
Predictor: Gates, Bill
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 interview with the editors of Wired, Microsoft CEO Bill Gates says: ”There are basically two domains where you can look to get a clue about the future. One is what I call low-bandwidth interactive: online services and the Internet. The second is high-bandwidth, the sort of bandwidth you get with CD-ROM, which is much faster than anything you get from online services. Too many people are having this big debate about whether the future in home devices is going to be more like the PC or the TV. The answer is you’re going to have both; people will have networks in their home, and the TV and PC will be some of the many peripherals on that network. The questions you need to ask are, What percentage of time will you want to sit in front of your PC? What percent passively watching your TV? And, When you’re watching your TV, are there many people there, and if there are, what sort of interactivity do all those people want to share with each other and the TV?”
Biography:Bill Gates, the most influential technology entrepreneur of the late 20th century, was the primary author of the prediction-packed 1995 book “The Road Ahead” and is the founder and CEO of Microsoft Corporation. (Entrepreneur/Business Leader.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Internet Appliances
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Rockin’ With Mr. Bill: He’s the Richest Guy in America. He’s Got Opinions. Here Are Some of Them.
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.12/gates_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney