The prediction, in brief:

Long-frustrated dreams of computer liberation – of a universal library, of instantaneous self-publishing, of electronic documents smart enough to answer a reader’s questions – are taking advantage of Mosaic to batter once more at the gates of popular consciousness. This time, it looks like they might break through.

Predictor: Wolf, Gary

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 article for Wired magazine about the Internet’s latest killer app, Mosaic, Gary Wolf writes:”Mosaic is not the most direct way to find online information. Nor is it the most powerful. It is merely the most pleasurable way, and in the 18 months since it was released, Mosaic has incited a rush of excitement and commercial energy unprecedented in the history of the Net … Long-frustrated dreams of computer liberation – of a universal library, of instantaneous self-publishing, of electronic documents smart enough to answer a reader’s questions – are taking advantage of Mosaic to batter once more at the gates of popular consciousness. This time, it looks like they might break through. Mosaic is clumsy but extraordinarily fun. With Mosaic, the online world appears to be a vast, interconnected universe of information. You can enter at any point and begin to wander; no Internet addresses or keyboard commands are necessary. The complex methods of extracting information from the Net are hidden from sight. Almost every person who uses it feels the impulse to add some content of his or her own. Since Mosaic first appeared, according to the NCSA, Net traffic devoted to hypermedia browsing has increased ten-thousandfold.”

Biography:

Gary Wolf was the executive editor of Wired Digital, which produced the online news service HotWired and the associated businesses HotBot and Pointcast in the 1990s. He was a co-author of the book “Aether Madness: An Off-Beat Guide to the Online World” (Peachpit Press, 1995). (Author/Editor/Journalist.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information

Subtopic: General

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: The (Second Phase of the) Revolution Has Begun: Don’t Look Now, But Prodigy, AOL, and CompuServe Are All Suddenly Obsolete – and Mosaic is Well on its Way to Becoming the World’s Standard Interface

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.10/mosaic_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney