The prediction, in brief:

To keep the Web from fragmenting into smaller communities with more rigid technical requirements, the authors of Web tools will have to share their ideas and coordinate the development of new standards. This is fine in the nonprofit research and academic worlds. But in the private sector, coordination could mean a sacrifice of competitive advantage. Mosaic Communications could hardly become the DOS of cyberspace if it developed its product in a way that encouraged competition from scores of other more or less interchangeable Mosaic browsers.

Predictor: Wilson, Chris

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 article for Wired magazine about the Internet’s latest killer app, Mosaic, Gary Wolf talks with Chris Wilson of SPRY and Marc Andreessen of Mosaic. Wolf writes:”Interestingly, at the practical level of commercial Mosaic development, both Wilson and Andreessen expressed doubt about whether the World Wide Web can maintain its open yet unified environment. To keep the Web from fragmenting into smaller communities with more rigid technical requirements, the authors of Web tools will have to share their ideas and coordinate the development of new standards. This is fine in the nonprofit research and academic worlds. But in the private sector, coordination could mean a sacrifice of competitive advantage. Mosaic Communications could hardly become the DOS of cyberspace if it developed its product in a way that encouraged competition from scores of other more or less interchangeable Mosaic browsers. Mosaic Communications has figured this out, which may be why Andreessen no longer shares much information with his colleagues outside the company. ‘At this point I see a lot of fragmentation,’ Wilson complains. ‘We are forging ahead in areas that need guidance – in security for instance. That is going to take a lot of standards work. I would like to see what happens with the other companies, and with Mosaic Communications especially. I haven’t heard a lot from them.’ The reason Wilson and other Mosaic developers have not heard much from Mosaic Communications lately, Andreessen admits, is that a unified standard is not of first importance to the company. ‘Our major concern is our products,’ he says. ‘On top of that, we would like to be in an open environment, where other browsers could read our documents. It makes companies and consumers more willing to buy in. But it can’t be our primary concern. ‘We are not going to let it slow us down,’ he continues.”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Language/Interface/Software

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: The (Second Phase of the) Revolution Has Begun: Don’t Look Now, But Prodigy, AOL, and CompuServe Are All Suddenly Obsolete – and Mosaic is Well on its Way to Becoming the World’s Standard Interface

Quote Type: Paraphrase

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.10/mosaic_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney