The prediction, in brief:

Neural networks are more flexible, adaptive, just like living systems, with the ability to evolve, to learn from making mistakes … We’re not going to take over the entire world in five years. Whenever you’re fighting uphill against an entrenched technology, you have to pick the right thing where you have a little bit of an edge.

Predictor: Mead, Carver

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 article for Wired magazine, Paulina Borsook interviews Carver Mead, the man who pioneered VLSI – Very Large-Scale Integration – chips, the basis for inexpensive modern computers. Borsook quotes Mead saying the following about the evolution of neural networks:”Neural networks are systems that learn from experience rather than from being preprogrammed. It’s not about how precisely you can remember something that was stored once, but about keeping up with the experience. Neural networks are more flexible, adaptive, just like living systems, with the ability to evolve, to learn from making mistakes. So that’s a different art form than standard computing and standard algorithms. And when you work that all the way through, the individual elements can be much more organic … we’re not going to take over the entire world in five years. Whenever you’re fighting uphill against an entrenched technology, you have to pick the right thing where you have a little bit of an edge.”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information

Subtopic: General

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: Listening to Silicon: VLSI and Neural Network Pioneer Carver Mead Believes that Good Science is a Form of Channeling

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.03/mead_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney