Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

A return to the traditions of universal service – to services defined by government mandate, often made cheap by cross-subsidy – may bring back more of the past than even its staunchest supporters would like: equality, yes, but also fewer choices, fewer and bigger companies, and fewer opportunities for innovation. It could, in fact, derail the entire information economy … Universal service is profoundly incompatible with another major item on politicians’ reform agenda: the introduction of competition into telecom markets … It is time to bury universal service – to bury it slowly, gently, and with great care to preserve both its spirit and its many achievements.

Predictor: Browning, John

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 essay for Wired magazine, John Browning, a contributor to The Economist from London, addresses the issue of universal communications service. He writes: ”This is the story of the noblest idea in the history of technology: universal telecommunications service. Universal service brought America into the information age. It put telephones into every American home (well, about 94 percent of them) and wove telephone lines through the fabric of American life … Today, when telephone, television, and printing press are poised to merge into something new, digital, and as-yet-undreamt-of, it is tempting to hark back to the original ideas of universal service. The hope is that these ideas will help to weave new networking technology into American life as seamlessly as the telephone. Sadly, they won’t … a return to the traditions of universal service – to services defined by government mandate, often made cheap by cross-subsidy – may bring back more of the past than even its staunchest supporters would like: equality, yes, but also fewer choices, fewer and bigger companies, and fewer opportunities for innovation. It could, in fact, derail the entire information economy. This leaves politicians in a bind. The fact is, legislators have included universal-service regulation in every bill promoting the information superhighway. Unfortunately, universal service is profoundly incompatible with another major item on politicians’ reform agenda: the introduction of competition into telecom markets. In trying to mix the two there is a risk that reformers will inadvertently capture the worst of both worlds: anemic markets regulated more for the benefit of entrenched business interests than that of the general public. Even as they promote universal service, politicians are hedging their bets – saying that they must redefine universal service as well as reemphasize it. The hard truth, however, is that it is time to bury universal service – to bury it slowly, gently, and with great care to preserve both its spirit and its many achievements.”

Biography:

John Browning served as executive editor of Wired UK, the English-language European edition of Wired, the magazine established to chronicle the digital revolution. Prior to Wired, Browning spent 12 years at The Economist, writing about business, technology and economics. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Universal Service

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: Universal Service (An Idea Whose Time is Past): Universal Service is a 1930s Solution to a 21st Century Problem. The Problem is an Excess (Not Shortage) of Bandwidth

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.09/universal.access_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney