Mandating universal service requires regulators to decide what services people should have and what prices they should pay. Regulation focused on open access, on the other hand, protects people’s abilities to decide for themselves. Open access regulation is not deregulation. On the contrary, it requires the government to intervene vigorously – particularly to ensure that small, new competitors get to use the existing telecom infrastructure on the same terms as the entrenched (soon-to-be former) monopolies that built it. This is both more difficult and more politically thankless than throwing subsidies at popular services.
Predictor: Browning, John
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 essay for Wired magazine, John Browning, a contributor to The Economist from London, addresses the issue of universal communications service. He writes: ”New technologies and new networks require a shift toward regulation based not on universal service but on open access. The distinction is subtle, but crucial. Mandating universal service requires regulators to decide what services people should have and what prices they should pay. Regulation focused on open access, on the other hand, protects people’s abilities to decide for themselves. Open access regulation is not deregulation. On the contrary, it requires the government to intervene vigorously – particularly to ensure that small, new competitors get to use the existing telecom infrastructure on the same terms as the entrenched (soon-to-be former) monopolies that built it. This is both more difficult and more politically thankless than throwing subsidies at popular services. To see why it is necessary, start by looking at the regulatory options for networks from a politician’s point of view. Then examine today’s regulatory machinery to see why universal service and competition don’t mix.”
Biography:John Browning served as executive editor of Wired UK, the English-language European edition of Wired, the magazine established to chronicle the digital revolution. Prior to Wired, Browning spent 12 years at The Economist, writing about business, technology and economics. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Economic structures
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Universal Service (An Idea Whose Time is Past): Universal Service is a 1930s Solution to a 21st Century Problem. The Problem is an Excess (Not Shortage) of Bandwidth
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.09/universal.access_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney