All of the telecom-reform legislation surfacing in 1994 contains a mixture of subsidies, service regulation, and competition. The same combination will probably recur in any future legislation, because each satisfies different and opposing interest groups … Unfortunately, competition and subsidized, regulated network services are profoundly incompatible, and universal service stands at the heart of the contradictions. To introduce competition without a complete overhaul of the universal-service funding mechanism would simply bankrupt those providing it. By trying not to disappoint anybody, politicians may yet disappoint everybody.
Predictor: Browning, John
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 essay for Wired magazine, John Browning, a contributor to The Economist from London, addresses the issue of universal communications service. He writes: ”All of the telecom-reform legislation surfacing in 1994 contains a mixture of subsidies, service regulation, and competition. The same combination will probably recur in any future legislation, because each satisfies different and opposing interest groups. Subsidies and service regulations satisfy public-interest groups who believe big companies are too self-interested andignorant to fulfill the promise of networks without strong leadership from a visionary government. Competition satisfies big companies who, on the contrary, argue that they will satisfy everybody’s greatest networking fantasy as soon as they are released from meddlesome, restrictive government regulation. Unfortunately, competition and subsidized, regulated network services are profoundly incompatible, and universal service stands at the heart of the contradictions. To introduce competition without a complete overhaul of the universal-service funding mechanism would simply bankrupt those providing it. By trying not to disappoint anybody, politicians may yet disappoint everybody.”
Biography:John Browning served as executive editor of Wired UK, the English-language European edition of Wired, the magazine established to chronicle the digital revolution. Prior to Wired, Browning spent 12 years at The Economist, writing about business, technology and economics. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Economic structures
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Universal Service (An Idea Whose Time is Past): Universal Service is a 1930s Solution to a 21st Century Problem. The Problem is an Excess (Not Shortage) of Bandwidth
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.09/universal.access_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney