What happens when you combine media voyeurism, technological exhibitionism, and strategic simulations? News flash: In the 21st century Army, you get the cyber-deterrent … The cyber-deterrent is fast, digitized, and is as spectacular in simulation as it is global in effect … the digitized option has the added advantage of being out of reach of all but the richest rogues. And it makes a hell of a photo-op. Digitization, making ever more convincing simulations possible, seems destined to replace an increasingly irrelevant nuclear balance of terror with a simulation of superiority. Moreover, the digitized deterrence machine bears an important similarity to its nuclear counterpart: it does not necessarily have to work to be effective.
Predictor: Der Derian, James
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article for Wired magazine, James Der Derian, author of “Antidiplomacy: Spies, Terror, Speed, and War,” writes: ”What happens when you combine media voyeurism, technological exhibitionism, and strategic simulations? News flash: In the 21st century Army, you get the cyber-deterrent. If this sounds far-fetched, consider the worst-case scenario that currently underlies strategic thinking. As CIA Director James Woolsey put it at his confirmation hearings, a ‘bewildering variety of poisonous snakes’ has sprung forth from the slain dragon of communism. When the dragon expired, so did the mighty, if illusory, deterrence value of nuclear weapons. On a quest since Vietnam to fight only quick, popular, winnable wars, and imbued by the spirit of feudal Chinese strategist Sun Tzu, who wrote that ‘those skilled in war subdue the enemy’s army without battle,’ the 21st century Army has perhaps found in the cyber-deterrent its Holy Grail. The cyber-deterrent is fast, digitized, and is as spectacular in simulation as it is global in effect. With the price of nukes falling and their availability increasing, the digitized option has the added advantage of being out of reach of all but the richest rogues. And it makes a hell of a photo-op. Digitization, making ever more convincing simulations possible, seems destined to replace an increasingly irrelevant nuclear balance of terror with a simulation of superiority. Moreover, the digitized deterrence machine bears an important similarity to its nuclear counterpart: it does not necessarily have to work to be effective. Its power lies in a symbolic exchange of signs – give or take the odd reality check in the desert to bring religion to the doubters.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics
Subtopic: Peacekeeping/Warfare
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Cyber-Deterrence: Wired Visits the Digital Battlefield of Desert Hammer VI to See Whether the U.S. Army Can Win the Next War Without Firing Another Shot
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.09/cyber.deter_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney