If the broadcast model is colliding with the Internet model, as I firmly believe it is, then each person can be an unlicensed TV station … Most telecommunications executives understand the need for broadband into the home. (Recall, broadband, for me, is 1.5 to 6 Mbits per household member, not Gbits). What they cannot fathom is the need for a back channel of similar capacity.
Predictor: Negroponte, Nicholas
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 essay for Wired magazine, Nicholas Negroponte, of MIT’s Media Lab, writes:”The 3.1 million camcorders sold in the U.S. last year cannot be ignored. If the broadcast model is colliding with the Internet model, as I firmly believe it is, then each person can be an unlicensed TV station. Yes, Mr. Vice President, this is what you said in L.A. Even before we understand how the Internet will function as a commercial enterprise, we must reckon with uncountable hours of video. I am not suggesting we consider every home movie to be a prime-time experience. What I am saying is that we can now think of TV as a great deal more than high-production-value mass media when the content strikes home, so to speak. Most telecommunications executives understand the need for broadband into the home. (Recall, broadband, for me, is 1.5 to 6 Mbits per household member, not Gbits). What they cannot fathom is the need for a back channel of similar capacity.”
Biography:Nicholas Negroponte, a co-founder of MIT’s Media Lab and a popular speaker and writer about technologies of the future, wrote one of the 1990s’ best-selling books about the new future of communications, “Being Digital.” (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: TV/Films/Video
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Prime Time is My Time: The Blockbuster Myth
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.08/negroponte_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney