Most people generally make a false assumption that more bits are better. More is more. In truth, we want fewer bits, not more … Just because bandwidth exists, don’t squirt more bits at me. What I really need is intelligence in the network and in my receiver to filter and extract relevant information from a body of information that is orders of magnitude larger than anything I can digest. To achieve this we use a technique known as “interface agents.” Imagine a future where your interface agent can read every newspaper and catch every broadcast on the planet, and then, from this, construct a personalized summary. Wouldn’t that be more interesting than pumping more and more bits into your home?
Predictor: Negroponte, Nicholas
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 essay for Wired magazine, Nicholas Negroponte of MIT’s Media Lab writes: ”The media cacophony over phenomena like the Internet fosters an open architecture and emphasizes access by all Americans. The clamor, however, has perpetuated a tacit assumption that more bandwidth is an innate, a priori, and (almost) constitutional good. The right to 1,000 channels of TV! When fiber reaches the home, by some estimates, we will have access to as much as 100 billion bits per second. Hmmm. Most people generally make a false assumption that more bits are better. More is more. In truth, we want fewer bits, not more. Our needs fall along a spectrum. Consider a newspaper: Our requirements are very different on Monday morning from what they were on Sunday afternoon. At 7 a.m. on a workday, you are less likely to be interested in browsing stories. Serendipity just does not play a key role then. In fact, you would most likely be willing to pay The New York Times $10 for 10 pages vs. $1 for 100 pages. If you could, you would opt for a heavy dose of personalized news. It’s simple: Just because bandwidth exists, don’t squirt more bits at me. What I really need is intelligence in the network and in my receiver to filter and extract relevant information from a body of information that is orders of magnitude larger than anything I can digest. To achieve this we use a technique known as ‘interface agents.’ Imagine a future where your interface agent can read every newspaper and catch every broadcast on the planet, and then, from this, construct a personalized summary. Wouldn’t that be more interesting than pumping more and more bits into your home?”
Biography:Nicholas Negroponte, a co-founder of MIT’s Media Lab and a popular speaker and writer about technologies of the future, wrote one of the 1990s’ best-selling books about the new future of communications, “Being Digital.” (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Intelligent Agents/AI
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Less Is More: Interface Agents as Digital Butlers
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.06/negroponte_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney