A lot of smug businesses, organizations, and implementations built around technology are going to be bypassed in the next few years – so fast it won’t even be funny. I’ll bet the Internet as we know it will be passe in five years – just as the largest number of people are waking up to it and making investment decisions about it. They will soon look foolish.
Predictor: Hughes, Dave
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article for Wired magazine, Dave Hughes, retired military officer and the founder of Montana’s Big Sky Telegraph system of network bulletin boards, writes: ”Last summer at the BBSCON in Colorado Springs, Colorado, 2,000 intense individuals – not hackers and hobbyists, but serious economic players – pursued their futures with a zeal that would startle many people. One bulletin board system operator, whose BBS operates out of his basement, grossed more than $5 million last year. That BBS will probably be gone next year, but the operator had recovered his investment in the first two weeks of operation. A lot of smug businesses, organizations, and implementations built around technology are going to be bypassed in the next few years – so fast it won’t even be funny. I’ll bet the Internet as we know it will be passe in five years – just as the largest number of people are waking up to it and making investment decisions about it. They will soon look foolish.”
Biography:Dave Hughes created the first free, modem dial-up, electronic democracy bulletin-board system in the world. It soon challenged and altered the way local city-wide politics were conducted. It was colorfully named “Roger’s Bar.” Within five years the world’s press had beaten a path to Hughes’ home to report on, and encourage others to adopt an entirely new model of “electronic democracy” Ð a model that could be adopted in any small town in America. Wired magazine said he was the best-known personality on the Internet in 1993. Microtimes Magazine named Hughes one of the 100 most influential individuals in the Computer Age six times between 1990 and 1996. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Chaos is the Form
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.01/chaos_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney