If you look at war we’re going to niche economies and niche warfare … That’s exactly what we say we didn’t do vis-a-vis Saddam, but what we will do. In fact there is a kind of dialectic here. We’ve always believed that many of the changes that we identify as carrying us into a third-wave civilization, or whatever, actually re-create preindustrial conditions on a high-technology basis. And what you then see is individual assassination. That’s the way the Medicis did it. It creates a scary world, certainly not a serene and stable world. And it does look a lot more like chaos theory than it does like equilibrium.
Predictor: Toffler, Alvin
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, futurist Peter Schwartz, a co-founder of the Global Business Network, discusses the high-tech future that will develop out of a knowledge-based world with futurist Alvin Toffler, the co-author (with his wife Heidi Toffler) of “Future Shock,” “The Third Wave” and “War and Anti-War.” Schwartz quotes Toffler saying: ”If you look at the marketplace, we go from mass distribution and mass markets to niche markets. And if you look at war we’re going to niche economies and niche warfare … We do not accept the idea that that means big wars are finished. And we do not accept the common assumption that there is a kind of zone of peace – that democracies don’t fight … [Schwartz asks ‘Do we end up going the other way in the sense we won’t target a country, we won’t target a division, but we do target a military leader?’] Exactly That’s exactly what we say we didn’t do vis-a-vis Saddam, but what we will do. In fact there is a kind of dialectic here. We’ve always believed that many of the changes that we identify as carrying us into a third-wave civilization, or whatever, actually re-create preindustrial conditions on a high-technology basis. And what you then see is individual assassination. That’s the way the Medicis did it It creates a scary world, certainly not a serene and stable world. And it does look a lot more like chaos theory than it does like equilibrium.”
Biography:Alvin Toffler was a futurist and best-selling author in the 1990s. He teamed up with his wife, Heidi, to write the bestsellers “Future Shock,” “The Third Wave” and “War and Anti-War.” (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics
Subtopic: Peacekeeping/Warfare
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Shock Wave (Anti) Warrior
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.05/toffler_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney