The fact is, the more knowledge-intensive military action becomes, the more nonlinear it becomes; the more a small input someplace can neutralize an enormous investment. And having the right bit or byte of information at the right place at the right time, in India or in Turkistan or in God knows where, could neutralize an enormous amount of military power somewhere else. So it is no longer necessary to match battalion with battalion, tank with tank, in order to neutralize the other guy. Don’t think in terms of countries. Think in terms of families. Think in terms of narco-traffickers. And think in terms of the very, very smart hacker sitting in Tehran.
Predictor: Toffler, Alvin
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, futurist Peter Schwartz, a co-founder of the Global Business Network, discusses the high-tech future that will develop out of a knowledge-based world with futurist Alvin Toffler, the co-author (with his wife Heidi Toffler) of “Future Shock,” “The Third Wave” and “War and Anti-War.” Schwartz quotes Toffler saying: ”The fact is, the more knowledge-intensive military action becomes, the more nonlinear it becomes; the more a small input someplace can neutralize an enormous investment. And having the right bit or byte of information at the right place at the right time, in India or in Turkistan or in God knows where, could neutralize an enormous amount of military power somewhere else. So it is no longer necessary to match battalion with battalion, tank with tank, in order to neutralize the other guy. Don’t think in terms of countries. Think in terms of families. Think in terms of narco-traffickers. And think in terms of the very, very smart hacker sitting in Tehran.”
Biography:Alvin Toffler was a futurist and best-selling author in the 1990s. He teamed up with his wife, Heidi, to write the bestsellers “Future Shock,” “The Third Wave” and “War and Anti-War.” (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics
Subtopic: Peacekeeping/Warfare
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Shock Wave (Anti) Warrior
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.05/toffler_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney