Although the popular debate over the NII has acknowledged a risk of polarization into information “haves” and “have nots,” a more varied spectrum involving “have mores” and “have lesses” may be more realistic … People with desktop or other immediate forms of access will be able to engage in more spontaneous, intermittent, and possibly more interactive uses of the infrastructure than people who must go to a communal point of access and wait their turn … At the present time there is no compelling argument for a government program to accomplish universal network access to all individuals immediately. Costs would be prohibitive, and the absence of a universal culture of use means that benefits would be swamped by costs. Rather, what is required is assurance that those individuals who desire access can obtain it in a cost-effective and straightforward manner.
Predictor: National Research Council
Prediction, in context:In 1994, the NRENaissance Committee, appointed by the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board of the National Research Council, produced a special report titled “Realizing the Information Future: The Internet and Beyond.” Among the committee members were Internet pioneers Leonard Kleinrock, David Clark, David Farber, Lawrence Landweber and Robert Kahn. The committee’s goal was to “study issues raised by the shift to a larger, more truly national networking capability.” Among its statements about the blossoming of the National Information Infrastructure (NII) is this: ”Although the popular debate over the NII has acknowledged a risk of polarization into information ‘haves’ and ‘have nots,’ a more varied spectrum involving ‘have mores’ and ‘have lesses’ may be more realistic. How ubiquitous is the access will determine, in part, the nature of the benefits: people with desktop or other immediate forms of access will be able to engage in more spontaneous, intermittent, and possibly more interactive uses of the infrastructure than people who must go to a communal point of access and wait their turn. Current administration and congressional activities aim at stimulating or accelerating the achievement of universal access to likely NII services. At the present time there is no compelling argument for a government program to accomplish universal network access to all individuals immediately. Costs would be prohibitive, and the absence of a universal culture of use means that benefits would be swamped by costs. Rather, what is required is assurance that those individuals who desire access can obtain it in a cost-effective and straightforward manner.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Universal Service
Name of publication: Realizing the Information Future: The Internet and Beyond
Title, headline, chapter name: Equitable Access
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://stills.nap.edu/html/rtif/
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney