The modes of information consumption may change or there may be greater variety … There also appear to be more “synthetic” applications that involve using small amounts of material from multiple sources, and more short-lived uses of information … Markets are demanding products by the piece rather than the conventional publishing package, and pieces are being integrated by users. The combination of new applications and a broadening user base challenge conventional approaches to pricing … Overall, all players in the NII publishing area must reevaluate their economic expectations and adapt them to the realities of the electronic world.
Predictor: National Research Council
Prediction, in context:In 1994, the NRENaissance Committee, appointed by the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board of the National Research Council, produced a special report titled “Realizing the Information Future: The Internet and Beyond.” Among the committee members were Internet pioneers Leonard Kleinrock, David Clark, David Farber, Lawrence Landweber and Robert Kahn. The committee’s goal was to “study issues raised by the shift to a larger, more truly national networking capability.” Among its statements about the blossoming of the National Information Infrastructure (NII) is this:”Experimentation within the research and education communities suggests that in the future, the modes of information consumption may change or there may be greater variety in modes … There also appear to be more ‘synthetic’ applications that involve using small amounts of material from multiple sources, and more short-lived uses of information (in some cases because the information is frequently updated, in other cases as interactive databases or other information resources proliferate). So-called ‘hot links’ allow users to reach out from one kind of document into other, related material through the network; the Mosaic interface to the World-Wide Web illustrates this phenomenon. In addition, markets are demanding products by the piece (e.g., single articles) rather than the conventional publishing package, and pieces are being integrated by users. The combination of new applications and a broadening user base challenge conventional approaches to pricing for information services. For example, current expectations about amount of royalty per sale or use may be inappropriate in an environment where a far larger number of people may seek to use the information and/or where the uses may be more short-lived than has been customary with paper or other fixed-medium products. Overall, all players in the NII publishing area must reevaluate their economic expectations and adapt them to the realities of the electronic world.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Publishing
Name of publication: Realizing the Information Future: The Internet and Beyond
Title, headline, chapter name: Flow of Information
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://stills.nap.edu/html/rtif/
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney