The committee’s vision of an NII characterized by an Open Data Network (ODN) architecture … implies a need for two-way service that is comparable in speed to that needed for compressed video-on the order of 2 to 4 Mbps, based on current industry discussions … In the near future, interactive graphics and multimedia documents will be a common means of information exchange that demand high speed. Accordingly, the trend on university campuses is toward Internet access at 1.5 Mbps and 45 Mbps. Pressure for these data rates to and from people’s homes will emerge.
Predictor: National Research Council
Prediction, in context:In 1994, the NRENaissance Committee, appointed by the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board of the National Research Council, produced a special report titled “Realizing the Information Future: The Internet and Beyond.” Among the committee members were Internet pioneers Leonard Kleinrock, David Clark, David Farber, Lawrence Landweber and Robert Kahn. The committee’s goal was to “study issues raised by the shift to a larger, more truly national networking capability.” Among its statements about the blossoming of the National Information Infrastructure (NII) is this: ”The committee’s vision of an NII characterized by an Open Data Network (ODN) architecture and including both entertainment-telephone-cable TV and general data communications services implies a need for two-way service that is comparable in speed to that needed for compressed video-on the order of 2 to 4 Mbps, based on current industry discussions. At present most people manage with much more modest speeds, such as those accommodated with dial-up modems (typically 9.6 or 14.4 kbps) over voice-grade lines, because these are compatible with existing telephone plant; those homes with integrated services digital network access can communicate at 128 kbps (or twice that, after compression), and reasonably priced Ethernet service over cable has been introduced in portions of California and Massachusetts … In the near future, interactive graphics and multimedia documents will be a common means of information exchange that demand high speed. Accordingly, the trend on university campuses is toward Internet access at 1.5 Mbps and 45 Mbps. Pressure for these data rates to and from people’s homes will emerge.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Realizing the Information Future: The Internet and Beyond
Title, headline, chapter name: Cost of Network Infrastructure
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://stills.nap.edu/html/rtif/
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney