Emerging plans for reconstructing the cable TV and telephone access networks will enable at least 1.5-Mbps access for each video channel; they open the door for interactive services. Reconstructed access networks for cable TV, for example, should be able to support Internet access and Internet-like services at much lower cost than is evident today.
Predictor: National Research Council
Prediction, in context:In 1994, the NRENaissance Committee, appointed by the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board of the National Research Council, produced a special report titled “Realizing the Information Future: The Internet and Beyond.” Among the committee members were Internet pioneers Leonard Kleinrock, David Clark, David Farber, Lawrence Landweber and Robert Kahn. The committee’s goal was to “study issues raised by the shift to a larger, more truly national networking capability.” Among its statements about the blossoming of the National Information Infrastructure (NII) is this: ”New technologies (such as the introduction of more fiber-optic facilities and such digital transport services as ATM) will be cheaper than digital services over voice networks. Both network- and information-related costs are likely to change, for such reasons as increasing competition, deregulation, changes in enabling technology, and increases in scale. Emerging plans for reconstructing the cable TV and telephone access networks will enable at least 1.5-Mbps access for each video channel; they open the door for interactive services. Reconstructed access networks for cable TV, for example, should be able to support Internet access and Internet-like services at much lower cost than is evident today. Efforts are already being made to exploit such connections using special hardware (such as new kinds of modems supporting Internet access over cable systems) and services.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Realizing the Information Future: The Internet and Beyond
Title, headline, chapter name: Cost of Network Infrastructure
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://stills.nap.edu/html/rtif/
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney