[In 2000,] there probably will be more than one company willing to run a line to you. You’ll be able to say who your local exchange carrier will be. It may be a telco or a cable company or even an electric power company. It’s like the long-distance choices today.
Predictor: Bell, Gordon
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Upside, the editors interview five leaders of the technology sector to ask them for their predictions. They include Gordon Bell, who led the development of Digital Equipment Corp.’s VAX computer; Robert Lucky, vice president of research at Bellcore; Nathan Myhrvold, senior vice president of advanced technology at Microsoft Corp.; Jef Raskin, who “launched the Macintosh project at Apple Computer Inc.”; and John Warnock, CEO of Adobe Systems. Here is one of the questions, followed by the answers from this stellar group: Q: “How many communication lines will the typical U.S. home have [by the year 2000]?” A: “GORDON BELL: The number of lines may not increase very much. Phone lines, including dedicated computer lines, will evolve to have ISDN speeds, which will in turn enable high-quality video telephony.” A: “ROBERT LUCKY: I think two, not counting radio and satellite. The telcos and cable companies will both provide broadband access, and their businesses will overlap. It’s hard to think of a reason why I need two broadband pipes into my home, but it will be good for us, we are assured.” A: “NATHAN MYHRVOLD: One, but you’ll have multiple choices. There probably will be more than one company willing to run a line to you. You’ll be able to say who your local exchange carrier will be. It may be a telco or a cable company or even an electric power company. It’s like the long-distance choices today.” A: “RASKIN: [The typical U.S. household will have] ten bidirectional [lines], including wireless paths.” A: “WARNOCK: They’ll have at least two major lines, one from the phone companies and one from cable companies.”
Biography:Gordon Bell proposed a plan for a U.S. research and education network in a 1987 report to the Office of Science and Technology in response to a congressional request by Al Gore. He was a technology leader at Digital Equipment Corporation (where he led the development of the VAX computer) and with Microsoft. (Technology Developer/Administrator)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Upside
Title, headline, chapter name: Musings on the Millennium: Five Leading Technologists Who Have Made an Impact on High-Tech Give Their Predictions on What the Future Holds
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Volume 6, Issue 10, Page 24 ISSN: 10520341
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney