When you ask consumers what they would be willing to pay for something, the answer is always $10. The burning question, though, is whether it is another $10, or the same $10. My guess would be [that by 2000 they will be willing to pay] $25 more than their basic cable bill is now, but this is on the optimistic side.
Predictor: Bell, Gordon
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Upside, the editors interview five leaders of the technology sector to ask them for their predictions. They include Gordon Bell, who led the development of Digital Equipment Corp.’s VAX computer; Robert Lucky, vice president of research at Bellcore; Nathan Myhrvold, senior vice president of advanced technology at Microsoft Corp.; Jef Raskin, who “launched the Macintosh project at Apple Computer Inc.”; and John Warnock, CEO of Adobe Systems. Here are two questions, regarding the cost to consumers of receiving networked information – followed by the answers from this stellar group: Q: “What will the typical household spend for interactive entertainment per month [on the network by the year 2000]?” A: “GORDON BELL: Ten percent more than they do today, including all the money spent on games, etc.” A: “ROBERT LUCKY: When you ask consumers what they would be willing to pay for something, the answer is always $10. The burning question, though, is whether it is another $10, or the same $10. My guess would be $25 more than their basic cable bill is now, but this is on the optimistic side.” A: “NATHAN MYHRVOLD: TV today is heavily subsidized by advertising. The average household spends about $22 a month for ‘free’ TV by supporting it through advertising. If you include advertising subsidies and all the various forms of information like newspapers and magazines, people are spending over $100 a month on information today. The total spent is going to be higher at the end of the decade – $120 to $150. Take today’s spending on all information and communications and increase it by 20 or 30 percent.” A: “JEF RASKIN: In year 1999 dollars: $120.” A: “JOHN WARNOCK: It probably will not be a lot more than what they spend now for entertainment. Disposable income tends not to expand. So these new forms of entertainment will be at the expense of some other existing forms of entertainment, such as movies or magazines.” Q: “What will the average household spend for other forms of interactive activity: computing, receiving and sending information, etc.?” A: “GORDON BELL: My guess is, not much more than they do today for all forms of information and games.” A: “ROBERT LUCKY: Very little. I don’t think that there is a big market for information in the ‘average’ home. I could see a lot of people being willing to pay, say, $15-$20 a month for high-speed Internet access. They would expect that a lot of information would be free behind that access. As they begin to pay for stuff in the electronic marketplace, I would see it coming out of entertainment spending. There isn’t an inexhaustible supply of new money in the average home. It has to come from somewhere, and the papers tell us no one saves anything.” A: “NATHAN MYHRVOLD: The question should really be, How much will be spent on old vs. new media forms? About half and half. Half of the $120 to $150 will still go to old forms.” A: “JOHN WARNOCK: The network will be one of the primary information sources for database searches, current news, etc. But a lot has to happen before it can replace newspapers and the like. It may take 10 years or more. Consumers still need and want the editorial judgment that editors at newspapers and magazines provide. And online services do not yet offer that.”
Biography:Gordon Bell proposed a plan for a U.S. research and education network in a 1987 report to the Office of Science and Technology in response to a congressional request by Al Gore. He was a technology leader at Digital Equipment Corporation (where he led the development of the VAX computer) and with Microsoft. (Technology Developer/Administrator)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Cost/Pricing
Name of publication: Upside
Title, headline, chapter name: Musings on the Millennium: Five Leading Technologists Who Have Made an Impact on High-Tech Give Their Predictions on What the Future Holds
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Volume 6, Issue 10, Page 24 ISSN: 10520341
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney