The pure PCs we know and love today will approach 50 percent [in regard to the number of U.S. homes using them]. The TC – a PC that connects to cable and provides TV and Internet access – will also come into existence. Varieties of PCs (i.e., appliances) that do useful things ranging from security to news gathering to taking data from closed captions should emerge. Still no robots in the home.
Predictor: Bell, Gordon
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Upside, the editors interview five leaders of the technology sector to ask them for their predictions. They include Gordon Bell, who led the development of Digital Equipment Corp.’s VAX computer; Robert Lucky, vice president of research at Bellcore; Nathan Myhrvold, senior vice president of advanced technology at Microsoft Corp.; Jef Raskin, who “launched the Macintosh project at Apple Computer Inc.”; and John Warnock, CEO of Adobe Systems. Here is one of the questions, followed by the answers from this stellar group: Q: “Today about one-third of U.S. homes have a PC. What percentage will have a PC by the end of the decade [by the year 2000]?” A: “GORDON BELL: The pure PCs we know and love today will approach 50 percent. The TC – a PC that connects to cable and provides TV and Internet access – will also come into existence. Varieties of PCs (i.e., appliances) that do useful things ranging from security to news gathering to taking data from closed captions should emerge. Still no robots in the home.” A: “ROBERT LUCKY: I’ll guess 80 percent. I see PCs as being the primary access method for just about everything other than entertainment television. That includes the game market.” A: “NATHAN MYHRVOLD: 70 percent.” A: “JEF RASKIN: 55 percent.” A: “JOHN WARNOCK: PCs will have close to the same percent penetration as TVs do today. [Editor’s note: Approximately 98.2 percent of American households have televisions.]”
Biography:Gordon Bell proposed a plan for a U.S. research and education network in a 1987 report to the Office of Science and Technology in response to a congressional request by Al Gore. He was a technology leader at Digital Equipment Corporation (where he led the development of the VAX computer) and with Microsoft. (Technology Developer/Administrator)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Internet Appliances
Name of publication: Upside
Title, headline, chapter name: Musings on the Millennium: Five Leading Technologists Who Have Made an Impact on High-Tech Give Their Predictions on What the Future Holds
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Volume 6, Issue 10, Page 24 ISSN: 10520341
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney