E-mail, including pagers and fax, will be the predominant form of communication [in the year 2000]. This will be 90 to 95 percent of all communication by contact.
Predictor: Bell, Gordon
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Upside, the editors interview five leaders of the technology sector to ask them for their predictions. They include Gordon Bell, who led the development of Digital Equipment Corp.’s VAX computer; Robert Lucky, vice president of research at Bellcore; Nathan Myhrvold, senior vice president of advanced technology at Microsoft Corp.; Jef Raskin, who “launched the Macintosh project at Apple Computer Inc.”; and John Warnock, CEO of Adobe Systems. Here, they are questioned about the amount of communication businesses would conduct by the year 2000 by Fax, phone, video conferencing, overnight mail and e-mail: Q: “What percentage of business communication (by number of contacts, not by volume of detail in the U.S. would you guess takes place by the following methods today, and what percent will occur at the end of the decade [the year 2000]? FAX: Gordon Bell: Today: 11%. End of decade: 7%. Robert Lucky: 10% and 10%. Nathan Myhrvold: Based on the current definition, use will decline substantially. There will be little difference between fax and e-mail six years from now. Jef Raskin: 25% and 10%. John Warnock: There will be better ways to communicate than fax. Its use will decline. VOICE TELEPHONE Gordon Bell: 15% and 15%. Robert Lucky: 50% and 30%. Nathan Myhrvold: It doesn’t have to decline in absolute terms, but in proportion to e-mail, which will expand enormously, it will decline substantially. Jef Raskin: 55% and 45%. John Warnock: Its use will decline also, but not as much as fax. COMBINED VIDEO/VOICE CONFERENCING Gordon Bell: 2% and 10%. Robert Lucky: 2% and 10%. Nathan Myhrvold: Increase substantially. It will be a standard feature of PCs. People will use it quite commonly. It really enables a level of work at home that is superior to other techniques. I would expect to have a substantial number of people at Microsoft working at home by then. Jef Raskin: 0% and 10%. John Warnock: Use of this technology will increase, but it will not be done the way it is today. It will be infinitely simpler to use and more useful. For example, you will be able to look at documents while communicating with voice and video. OVERNIGHT MAIL Gordon Bell: 2% and 1.5%. Robert Lucky: 3% and 5%. Nathan Myhrvold: No great change. Lots of things sent FedEx today will be sent digitally in the future, like documents and diskettes. But when you’re buying physical goods from the information highway, you’ve got to get them home somehow. So delivering all kinds of things will go way up, until we have replicators and translator beams. Jef Raskin: 2% and 2%. John Warnock: The percentage will decline. REGULAR MAIL Gordon Bell: 20% and 10%. Robert Lucky: 25% and 25%. Nathan Myhrvold: Same as overnight. The area of biggest change will be in reply-mail and direct-mail advertising. Jef Raskin: 15% and 7%. John Warnock: The percentage will decline. ELECTRONIC MAIL Gordon Bell: 50% and 56%. (I assume the quality of e-mail is significantly increased to handle most corporate documents.) Robert Lucky: 10% and 30%. Nathan Myhrvold: E-mail, including pagers and fax, will be the predominant form of communication. This will be 90 to 95 percent of all communication by contact. Jef Raskin: 3% and 26%. John Warnock: Use will grow dramatically.
Biography:Gordon Bell proposed a plan for a U.S. research and education network in a 1987 report to the Office of Science and Technology in response to a congressional request by Al Gore. He was a technology leader at Digital Equipment Corporation (where he led the development of the VAX computer) and with Microsoft. (Technology Developer/Administrator)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Communication
Subtopic: E-mail
Name of publication: Upside
Title, headline, chapter name: Musings on the Millennium: Five Leading Technologists Who Have Made an Impact on High-Tech Give Their Predictions on What the Future Holds
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Volume 6, Issue 10, Page 24 ISSN: 10520341
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney