[The expected advancements that will be the biggest disappointments by 2000 will be] object-oriented programming – no significant change in the way software is built or the industry is organized; agents that do useful things; collaboration technology – people will realize it’s nothing more than video in a window.
Predictor: Bell, Gordon
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Upside, the editors interview five leaders of the technology sector to ask them for their predictions. They include Gordon Bell, who led the development of Digital Equipment Corp.’s VAX computer; Robert Lucky, vice president of research at Bellcore; Nathan Myhrvold, senior vice president of advanced technology at Microsoft Corp.; Jef Raskin, who “launched the Macintosh project at Apple Computer Inc.”; and John Warnock, CEO of Adobe Systems. Here is one of the questions, followed by the answers from this stellar group: Q: “What advancement will be the biggest disappointment [by the year 2000]?” A: “GORDON BELL: Object-oriented programming – no significant change in the way software is built or the industry is organized; agents that do useful things; collaboration technology – people will realize it’s nothing more than video in a window.” A: “ROBERT MYHRVOLD: There’s a lot of competition. The level of hype on the information highway is astounding. There is an expectation that this all happens very quickly. In its full grandeur, it’s going to take 10 years for these things to roll out.” A: “JEF RASKIN: Pen input.” A: “JOHN WARNOCK: I don’t think software will turn into objects that communicate with one another. I think the whole object thing is a red herring. Large apps aren’t built with object delivery model. Interfaces between apps are more complex than objects can deal with.”
Biography:Gordon Bell proposed a plan for a U.S. research and education network in a 1987 report to the Office of Science and Technology in response to a congressional request by Al Gore. He was a technology leader at Digital Equipment Corporation (where he led the development of the VAX computer) and with Microsoft. (Technology Developer/Administrator)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Upside
Title, headline, chapter name: Musings on the Millennium: Five Leading Technologists Who Have Made an Impact on High-Tech Give Their Predictions on What the Future Holds
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Volume 6, Issue 10, Page 24 ISSN: 10520341
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney