[By 2000] I expect [the Internet] to become the backbone for electronic commerce. I expect it to begin to carry voice and video, and in the process to cause a big ruckus about unfair competition for the common carriers. Governments will want to regulate it. There will be a lot of legal turmoil about privacy, free speech, import-export law, etc. The culture will change to be less of a frontier justice to more of an organized, businesslike world. Usage pricing will begin. Information won’t be free anymore; everything will cost.
Predictor: Bell, Gordon
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Upside, the editors interview five leaders of the technology sector to ask them for their predictions. They include Gordon Bell, who led the development of Digital Equipment Corp.’s VAX computer; Robert Lucky, vice president of research at Bellcore; Nathan Myhrvold, senior vice president of advanced technology at Microsoft Corp.; Jef Raskin, who “launched the Macintosh project at Apple Computer Inc.”; and John Warnock, CEO of Adobe Systems. Here is one of the questions, followed by the answers from this stellar group: Q: “What will happen to the Internet [by the year 2000]?” A: “GORDON BELL: It will carry out commerce, complete with bandwidth and security.” A: “ROBERT LUCKY: Current projections show the number of users of the Internet intersecting with the world’s population in the year 2001. But that won’t happen. For one thing, there is a rising belief that the number of users is overestimated now. The other thing is that I expect some Malthusian principle to take effect that starts to limit the growth to less than the 100 percent annual growth that we now have. However, I do expect the Internet to become the de facto information highway for the world. I expect it to become the backbone for electronic commerce. I expect it to begin to carry voice and video, and in the process to cause a big ruckus about unfair competition for the common carriers. Governments will want to regulate it. There will be a lot of legal turmoil about privacy, free speech, import-export law, etc. The culture will change to be less of a frontier justice to more of an organized, businesslike world. Usage pricing will begin. Information won’t be free anymore; everything will cost.” A: “NATHAN MYHRVOLD: If you view the Internet as a metaphor for the information highway and wide-area connectivity, it lives forever. If you view it as the service it is now, with no user interface standards, tons of arcane stuff, people who bitch when newcomers come on – that’s a passing era.” A: “JEF RASKIN: It will become a for-profit corporate entity, grudgingly interconnecting with other service providers.” A: “JOHN WARNOCK: Who knows? It will still exist in some form.”
Biography:Gordon Bell proposed a plan for a U.S. research and education network in a 1987 report to the Office of Science and Technology in response to a congressional request by Al Gore. He was a technology leader at Digital Equipment Corporation (where he led the development of the VAX computer) and with Microsoft. (Technology Developer/Administrator)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Upside
Title, headline, chapter name: Musings on the Millennium: Five Leading Technologists Who Have Made an Impact on High-Tech Give Their Predictions on What the Future Holds
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Volume 6, Issue 10, Page 24 ISSN: 10520341
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney