We will see access to broadband information service becoming standard, although six years may be a little early. Embedded chips in lights and appliances is coming, but for now it’s a niche phenomenon.
Predictor: Bell, Gordon
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Upside, the editors interview five leaders of the technology sector to ask them for their predictions. They include Gordon Bell, who led the development of Digital Equipment Corp.’s VAX computer; Robert Lucky, vice president of research at Bellcore; Nathan Myhrvold, senior vice president of advanced technology at Microsoft Corp.; Jef Raskin, who “launched the Macintosh project at Apple Computer Inc.”; and John Warnock, CEO of Adobe Systems. Here is one of the questions, followed by the answers from this stellar group: Q: “By the end of the decade, how far will we have gotten to the ‘smart home?'” A: “GORDON BELL: Not very far.” A: “ROBERT LUCKY: Homes will still be dumb. Nobody will really want a home that thinks for itself. Homes should know their place, and be quietly attentive.” A: “NATHAN MYHRVOLD: In most places new homes are now passed by cable. We will see access to broadband information service becoming standard, although six years may be a little early. Embedded chips in lights and appliances is coming, but for now it’s a niche phenomenon.” A: “JEF RASKIN: In this time span the changes will be small and incremental. Most homes will not be far different than what they are now.” A: “JOHN WARNOCK: This will not progress very far. There are so many individual preferences and situations that it will be slow going. Not many people are going to want to rewire their homes.”
Biography:Gordon Bell proposed a plan for a U.S. research and education network in a 1987 report to the Office of Science and Technology in response to a congressional request by Al Gore. He was a technology leader at Digital Equipment Corporation (where he led the development of the VAX computer) and with Microsoft. (Technology Developer/Administrator)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Upside
Title, headline, chapter name: Musings on the Millennium: Five Leading Technologists Who Have Made an Impact on High-Tech Give Their Predictions on What the Future Holds
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Volume 6, Issue 10, Page 24 ISSN: 10520341
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney