The history of U.S. technology is the history of a recurring U.S. dream: new inventions will empower the individual more than the corporation … A current variant is the prediction that the anarchic Internet will turn people into media makers and kill off more restrictive commercial services like America Online and CompuServe. This prediction has two flaws. First, in a society satisfied by “Baywatch” reruns, few people will produce or consume the amateur media. Second, no matter how nice the Web viewer, the unstructured Internet will always be much harder to use than an online service.
Predictor: Steinberg, Steve G.
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article listing tech items and issues that are currently being hyped, Steve Steinberg of Wired magazine writes: ”The history of U.S. technology is the history of a recurring U.S. dream: new inventions will empower the individual more than the corporation. Despite numerous events to disprove it, the dream has not died. A current variant is the prediction that the anarchic Internet will turn people into media makers and kill off more restrictive commercial services like America Online and CompuServe. This prediction has two flaws. First, in a society satisfied by ‘Baywatch’ reruns, few people will produce or consume the amateur media. Second, no matter how nice the Web viewer, the unstructured Internet will always be much harder to use than an online service.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Internet Service Providers
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Hype List: Death of Online Services
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.01/hypelist.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney