Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

Some say the problems with IP can be fixed only when they are free of the homogenizing effects of the IETF; because of its size, the argument goes, only the lowest common denominator of network thinking takes place at the IETF. These dissenters may end up ignoring the mainstream IETF work on the next generation of IP – and strategize a better IP in skunkworks alternative working groups. But in the elastic, anarchic structure of the IETF, there’s room for such alternatives, dissent, and working-around.

Predictor: Borsook, Paulina

Prediction, in context:

In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, Paulina Borsook explains the workings of the Internet Engineering Task Force, the group behind the Internet’s protocols and engineering. Borsook writes: ”The IETF is divided into nine functional areas that change as needed. Each has at least one area director (a volunteer like everyone else in the IETF); and these directors comprise the Internet Engineering Steering Group, responsible for Internet standards processes … About a dozen working groups in each area operate under charters to achieve specific goals … the working groups take on such noble efforts as helping the Net survive its catastrophically high growth rates; coaxing it to work with new multimedia, video, and multicast technologies … and getting it to connect more effectively … Working groups even seek to foster civility on the Net: the charter of the working group abbreviated RUN (Responsible Use of the Network) is to codify and update a useful Netiquette RFC. RFC stands for ‘Request For Comments,’ a term that extends back to the 1970s Arpanet Network Working Group. An RFC represents collated proposals sufficiently polished to be worthy of eliciting formal responses and technical experimentation from the Net community. Some RFCs are serious technical documents, some are jokes, and some are in between … The institution that serves as the IETF’s personal assistant is the CNRI – Corporation for National Research Initiatives – a permanent body that takes care of the details. Located in Reston, Virginia, CNRI was founded in part by … Vinton Cerf – the Net celeb and father of TCP/IP (Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol). Its charter is ‘Research and Development for the National Information Infrastructure,’ and it’s largely funded by federal grants … A grand melodrama … surrounds the future of IP (Internet Protocol), the communications technology that undergirds the Net and is becoming too old and creaky to support all that is being demanded of it … the reality is, as always with the IETF, that if some rebel fighters were to come up with a demonstrably better solution, chances are it would have a hearing and be tested. Some say the problems with IP can be fixed only when they are free of the homogenizing effects of the IETF; because of its size, the argument goes, only the lowest common denominator of network thinking takes place at the IETF. These dissenters may end up ignoring the mainstream IETF work on the next generation of IP – and strategize a better IP in skunkworks alternative working groups. But in the elastic, anarchic structure of the IETF, there’s room for such alternatives, dissent, and working-around.”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Protocols

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: How Anarchy Works: On Location with the Masters of the Metaverse, the Internet Engineering Task Force

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.10/ietf_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney