Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

Given the market’s answers to privacy on the public networks – onetime password schemes, encryption – what could be the motivation for packing the Privacy Working Group with characters whose stock-in-trade is privacy invasion? The administration’s history indicates that these soldiers of twilight information wars are on the panel to defend their agendas.

Predictor: Cassidy, Peter

Prediction, in context:

In a 1995 essay for Wired magazine, Peter Cassidy argues that the Clinton administration’s National Information Infrastructure Task Force has the wrong people on its Privacy Working Group subcommittee. Cassidy writes: ”In the case of the task force’s Privacy Working Group subcommittee, a disturbing number – about a quarter of the members – have a highly ambiguous posture regarding privacy: their careers are based on creative invasion of it. Included in this subcommittee, which began its weekly meetings in August 1993, are representatives of the NSA (an international spy agency), the IRS (a domestic spy agency that monitors Americans’ personal finances), and the Justice and Treasury Departments, both outfits with legacies of abusing taxpayer privacy. Can these characters really be entrusted with policy questions on personal privacy? Let’s examine the members’ professional perspectives. NSA’s fiscal 1995 budget, according to a report published by Defense Week last summer, is $3.5 billion, much of it dedicated to listening to the world’s electronic communications … The Internal Revenue Service? In December, the IRS proposed an amendment, now in effect, to the Privacy Act ‘system of records’ that could lead to the instant creation of dossiers on all Americans … Department of Justice? Yes, these guys are bound by rules of procedure. But if a change in regulation can place something into view – where it’s available without a warrant – why not? The FBI is always pushing the envelope, lobbying for amendments to give its agents access to financial information through ‘administrative subpoenas,’ for instance, instead of a warrant. This is not a crowd of privacy absolutists, to be sure … One of the Treasury’s reps on the panel is Stephen Kroll, chief counsel for the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. The outfit uses high-order artificial-intelligence computer hardware to sift through federal and local databases to track down money launderers – and to target new subjects for investigation. I’m sure Kroll will never be accused of privacy fanaticism. The United States Postal Service? The USPS rep on the panel is Chuck Chamberlain, the unlucky fellow who addressed a smart-card conference in Virginia last spring, discussing the logistics of delivering 100 million national ‘privacy’ cards, which to privacy advocates sounded a lot like a national identification system … Given the market’s answers to privacy on the public networks – onetime password schemes, encryption – what could be the motivation for packing the Privacy Working Group with characters whose stock-in-trade is privacy invasion? The administration’s history indicates that these soldiers of twilight information wars are on the panel to defend their agendas.”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Communication

Subtopic: Security/Encryption

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: Can Pyromaniacs Fight Fires? The President Has Convened an Interagency ‘Privacy Working Group.’ Are Your Rights More – or Less – Secure When it’s in Session?

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.05/cyber.rights_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney