Information and communications technologies will change how conventional battles are conducted. Instead of bombing factories, the aim may now be to penetrate information networks. As more and more of the economy of any given country is embodied in its information systems, that country will be more vulnerable to disruption.
Predictor: Marshall, Andrew
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, Peter Schwartz, co-founder and president of Global Business Network and author of “The Art of the Long View,” interviews Andrew Marshall, a national security researcher/consultant whose work included stints at the Rand think tank in 1949 and 22 years at the Pentagon, under six presidents. Schwartz quotes Marshall saying: ”Information and communications technologies will change how conventional battles are conducted. Instead of bombing factories, the aim may now be to penetrate information networks. As more and more of the economy of any given country is embodied in its information systems, that country will be more vulnerable to disruption.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics
Subtopic: Peacekeeping/Warfare
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Warrior in the Age of Intelligent Machines: The Pentagon’s Resident Visionary, Andrew Marshall, Talks to Peter Schwartz About Why Everything You Know About War is Wrong
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.04/pentagon_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney