The prediction, in brief:

In the world of bits, you can be small and global at the same time … Everyone can play in the multimedia and human-interface arena. This means individuals or researchers from developing nations can now contribute directly to the world’s pool of ideas. Being big does not matter. For these reasons, more than ever before, we must trade ideas, not embargo them.

Predictor: Negroponte, Nicholas

Prediction, in context:

In a 1995 column for Wired magazine, Nicholas Negroponte, founder of MIT’s Media Lab, writes:”During the recent past, a prerequisite for being global was being big. This applied to countries, to companies, and, in a sense, to people. Big nations took care of smaller countries, huge corporations were the multinationals, and the rich were the internationals. Today, this paradigm is changing, and this change will have a huge effect on the world trade of ideas. In the world of bits, you can be small and global at the same time. In the early days of computing, only a few institutions owned tools to think with, like linear accelerators. Many of the players were in debt to the few who could afford the luxury of science. They poached on the basic research provided by those who had the equipment to do it. Today, a $2,000 100-MHz Pentium PC has more power than MIT’s central computer had when I was a student. In addition, so many peripherals are being manufactured at consumer prices, everyone can play in the multimedia and human-interface arena. This means individuals or researchers from developing nations can now contribute directly to the world’s pool of ideas. Being big does not matter. For these reasons, more than ever before, we must trade ideas, not embargo them.”

Biography:

Nicholas Negroponte, a co-founder of MIT’s Media Lab and a popular speaker and writer about technologies of the future, wrote one of the 1990s’ best-selling books about the new future of communications, “Being Digital.” (Pioneer/Originator.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics

Subtopic: General

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: The Balance of Trade of Ideas

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.04/negroponte_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney