The PCs that will come out in the next few years will be able to act as a set-top … All it will take is a wire from the one to the other to make that intelligence energize the tube. But you’re not going to watch television on a little monitor. You’re going to watch it on a big set. That’s what you’ll use when you want entertainment, and you’ll use the PC and keyboard when text is more important. So you’re going to have both in many houses. But even in 2000, you’ll still have 75 percent or more of the population that doesn’t have a sufficiently intelligent PC to handle the kind of interactive services that we’ll be able to offer over television sets.
Predictor: Smith, Ray
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, David Kline interviews Bell Atlantic CEO Ray Smith. Following is an excerpt from the discussion: ”Wired: Why deliver it [networked communications] through the TV? Many would argue that the PC is a better vehicle for these services, and some even predict that by 2000 the PC will be the dominant interactive appliance in the home.” ”Smith: That’s not going to be the case. I think they’re missing the whole point, because you’re going to have intelligence in the home. The intelligence, of course, could be a set-top box or a personal computer. In fact, the PCs that will come out in the next few years will be able to act as a set-top, once they figure out what the interactive set-top will look like. And all it will take is a wire from the one to the other to make that intelligence energize the tube. But you’re not going to watch television on a little monitor. You’re going to watch it on a big set. That’s what you’ll use when you want entertainment, and you’ll use the PC and keyboard when text is more important. So you’re going to have both in many houses. But even in 2000, you’ll still have 75 percent or more of the population that doesn’t have a sufficiently intelligent PC to handle the kind of interactive services that we’ll be able to offer over television sets. The other thing to keep in mind is, the real diffusion rate of PCs into the home is not progressing the way people say it is. They talk about the number of PCs shipped each year, and there are a lot of them. But many of them are seconds and replacements. What percentage of the homes in Pittsburgh today, for instance, do you think have have a 486 PC in their residence?”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Internet Appliances
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Align and Conquer: The Smartest Telco CEO, Bell Atlantic’s Ray Smith, Reveals What Really Torpedoed His Merger With John Malone’s TCI, Why the Telcos Are Going to Kick Cable’s Butts, and Precisely How the I-Way is Going to Reach Your Home
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.02/smith_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney