Movies survived television, and radio is hardly extinct. To worry about displacement is futile, and to base plans on it is wasteful. Of course, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t explore new technologies … We will fall short if we impose our own familiar business models on the coming convergence. Telephones were not just telegraphs with voice. Computers weren’t just calculators with keyboards. And in the future, no one will call your product “magazines with sound and moving pictures.” We have to resist media imperialism – the tendency to colonize, to define new technologies in terms of the old … Redefine, don’t repackage.
Predictor: Diller, Barry
Prediction, in context:A 1995 article for Wired magazine, carried the keynote address delivered by QVC CEO Barry Diller at the American Magazine Conference in Laguna Niguel, California. Diller also served as chair and CEO of Fox Inc. and worked as an executive at ABC and Paramount, and his words come from those experiences. Diller says: ”Right now, no matter what kind of publication you put out, you’re all asking the same questions: Are we still relevant? How do we make sure, when we’re riding down that info highway, that we don’t get a flat or become roadkill or some other ridiculous cliche? The irony is, you’re victims of your own hype. As a result, just as newspapers are trying to outdo each other with more graphics and fewer words, thinking that’s the way to grab younger readers, so many of you are now slapping versions of your magazine on disc or online. Here’s what I think – you’ll go online, nothing really interesting will happen for one or two years, and you’ll write off interactivity as a failure. But the first question should have been: Who really wants a magazine online? A magazine in its present form is OK … What’s driving this stampede to electronic publishing? There’s not a rationale so much as a reflex. There is a great overarching fear that video will displace text. That leads to a fear that magazines are about to become extinct. And so the herd instinct kicks in, nudging everyone slowly toward the faraway pastures of cyberspace. First of all, this fear of displacement is misguided. When cable TV arrived, people said, ‘This is the end of the networks.’ No. That’s insane. There is no such thing as real displacement. Movies survived television, and radio is hardly extinct. To worry about displacement is futile, and to base plans on it is wasteful. Of course, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t explore new technologies … We will fall short if we impose our own familiar business models on the coming convergence. Telephones were not just telegraphs with voice. Computers weren’t just calculators with keyboards. And in the future, no one will call your product ‘magazines with sound and moving pictures.’ We have to resist media imperialism – the tendency to colonize, to define new technologies in terms of the old … Redefine, don’t repackage. Redefining the mission of your ventures is slow, brain-bending work. Right now, that message is lost on too many people. There isn’t a single gold-paved road to success in this new environment. There is no road map or users manual. It’s not something you can research. And there is nothing to be gained by forcing new opportunities into the boxes of past experience. What we need to do is slow down. To relax.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Don’t Repackage – Redefine! We Have to Resist Media Imperialism – the Tendency to Colonize, to Define New Technologies in Terms of the Old
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.02/diller_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney