The telephone was a major advance in two-way communication. But at first, even it was denounced as nothing more than a nuisance … As I write, a newer form of communication Ð electronic mail, e-mail, is undergoing the same sort of process: establishing its own rules and habits É The information highway will transform our culture as dramatically as Gutenberg’s press did the Middle Ages.
Predictor: Gates, Bill
Prediction, in context:In his 1995 book “The Road Ahead,” Microsoft CEO Bill Gates writes :”Perhaps you’ll decline to participate [in the networking revolution]. People commonly make this vow when some new technology threatens to change what they’re familiar and comfortable with. At first, the bicycle was a silly contraption; the automobile, a noisy intruder, the pocket calculator, a threat to the study of mathematics; the radio, an end to literacy. But then something happens. Over time, these machines find a place in our everyday lives because they not only offer convenience and save labor; they also inspire us to new creative heights. We warm to them. They assume a trusted place beside our other tools. A new generation grows up with them, changing and humanizing them. In short, playing with them. The telephone was a major advance in two-way communication. But at first, even it was denounced as nothing more than a nuisance. People were made uncomfortable and awkward by this mechanical invader in their homes. Eventually, though, men and women realized they were not just getting a new machine, they were learning a new kind of communication É As it flourished, its own special expression, tricks, etiquette, and culture developed. Alexander Graham Bell certainly wouldn’t have anticipated the silly executive game, ‘Have my secretary get him on the line before me.’ As I write, a newer form of communication Ð electronic mail, e-mail, is undergoing the same sort of process: establishing its own rules and habits É The information highway will transform our culture as dramatically as Gutenberg’s press did the Middle Ages.”
Biography:Bill Gates, the most influential technology entrepreneur of the late 20th century, was the primary author of the prediction-packed 1995 book “The Road Ahead” and is the founder and CEO of Microsoft Corporation. (Entrepreneur/Business Leader.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: The Road Ahead (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Chapter 1: A Revolution Begins
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 7, 9
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney