The change in the technology is so dismaying to so many people, to so much business that there may be an attempt to just lock it in and say, “OK, Bill Gates, run the world. Everything’s going to be Microsoft, everything’s going to be on the Net, and the computers – that’s it. Let’s have one standard and slow things down so versions come at a predictable pace.” There’s not a lot of competition which drives things too fast, it’s too confusing. Let’s just make it stable. That would be people asking for a monopoly in order to manage creative technological change.
Predictor: Brand, Stewart
Prediction, in context:In an interview that aired on PBS-TV in 1995, Internet pioneer Stewart Brand said: ”There are several ways that the technology could go. There are several ways that people’s responses to the technology could go. And the Global Business Network, which is the group I work with, has been looking at this and we’ve been talking about [how] the change in the technology is so dismaying to so many people, to so much business that there may be an attempt to just lock it in and say, ‘OK, Bill Gates, run the world. Everything’s going to be Microsoft, everything’s going to be on the Net, and the computers – that’s it. Let’s have one standard and slow things down so versions come at a predictable pace.’ There’s not a lot of competition which drives things too fast, it’s too confusing. Let’s just make it stable. That would be people asking for a monopoly in order to manage creative technological change. It’s one pretty reasonable solution, and I think there’s a lot of pressure in the marketplace to do that. At the same time, it may be impossible to maintain any kind of technology lock-in … You might get standards that emerge that have taken time to evolve that people are really happy with, and great, this is good, let’s stick with this part of it. Let’s stay there. Well that may be impossible.”
Biography:Stewart Brand founded Whole Earth ‘Lectronic Link (WELL) in 1985 with Larry Brilliant. This was one of the first and most intellectually active online “communities.” (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: June 15, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Role of Govt./Industry
Name of publication: PBS-TV Interview in San Francisco
Title, headline, chapter name: High Stakes in Cyberspace
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/cyberspace/brand.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney