The prediction, in brief:

With only about half of U.S. households containing personal computers by the year 2000, a robust set of alternative devices and locations is needed, including keyboard attachments to TV set-top boxes and video game machines, and extended telephones providing e-mail (and likely integrated voice mail) access. Public access is vital, with libraries, post offices, kiosks, and government buildings each playing a role. There might well be a market for “pay” terminals analogous to the ubiquitous pay telephones.

Predictor: Anderson, Robert H.

Prediction, in context:

In a 1995 research paper published for the RAND Publications Database, Robert H. Anderson, Tora K. Bikson, Sally Ann Law, Bridger M. Mitchell, Christopher Kedzie, Brent Keltner, Constantijn Panis, Joel Pliskin, Padmanabhan Srinagesh write about the feasibility of universal access to e-mail:”We find that access to and the location of physical devices for e-mail use significantly impede universal access. With only about half of U.S. households containing personal computers by the year 2000, a robust set of alternative devices and locations is needed, including keyboard attachments to TV set-top boxes and video game machines, and extended telephones providing e-mail (and likely integrated voice mail) access. Public access is vital, with libraries, post offices, kiosks, and government buildings each playing a role. There might well be a market for ‘pay’ terminals analogous to the ubiquitous pay telephones.”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Communication

Subtopic: General

Name of publication: Rand Publications Database

Title, headline, chapter name: Universal Access to E-mail: Feasibility and Societal Implications

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR650/sum.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney