Once esoteric scholarly/scientific publication became airborne as a consequence of this public archiving, the rest of the revolutionary potential of Skywriting [publishing online] could be explored, particularly interactive commentary at a tempo closer to the speed of thought than anything that could be dreamt of in the old medium. This new medium would not necessarily mean the demise of established publishers. A mutually beneficial, cooperative solution can be found.
Predictor: Harnad, Stevan
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 research paper published in Managing Information, Stevan Harnad of the University of Southampton writes about the coming revolution in the publishing of scholarly research and commentary:”[In order to protect their interests in the traditional methods of scholarly publishing,] publishers could invoke copyright and try to force authors to remove the reprints from the archive, but I predict that this would fail. The conflict of interest would be too great, and the alternatives too powerful; authors would not once again submit to the Faustian bargain now that they had a choice … Publishers could discontinue publishing esoteric journals altogether. In this case the peer community would have to implement peer review and publication quality control on its own, perhaps through its universities and learned societies. Publishers could adopt a revenue model that is more compatible with esoteric publication: The true per-page costs of publishing (well below 30 percent of their current costs, by my estimate) and a fair profit would be recovered in the form of page-charges to the author, paid for by publication grants or institutional subsidy. The author’s end coverage of the costs of publishing would amount to such a small annual sum for even the most productive author that it would become a standard markup for research grants as well as academic positions to include the page-charge subsidy as part of the scholar/scientist’s research funding. Once esoteric scholarly/scientific publication became airborne as a consequence of this public archiving, the rest of the revolutionary potential of Skywriting could be explored, particularly interactive commentary at a tempo closer to the speed of thought than anything that could be dreamt of in the old medium. This new medium would not necessarily mean the demise of established publishers. A mutually beneficial, cooperative solution can be found. If publishers recognize and accept the non-trade mode ushered in by electronic-only publication and reorganize their role accordingly, their role will still be important and will still yield a fair return for their contribution. If publishers will be flexible, innovative, and far-seeing, and will anticipate and adapt themselves in the valid service of the inevitable direction that scholarly publication will take in the fast-approaching electronic-only era, they will save themselves and benefit us all by making their generations of expertise and experience available in the new environment.”
Biography:Stevan Harnad was a professor and researcher in the United Kingdom in the 1990s. He made predictions about the future of electronic publishing, including his article “Electronic Scholarly Publication: Quo Vadis” (1995). (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)?
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Publishing
Name of publication: Managing Information
Title, headline, chapter name: Electronic Scholarly Publication: Quo Vadis
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.ecs.soton.ac.uk/~harnad/Papers/Harnad/harnad95.quo.vadis.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney