All this “push” advertising is on the way out … people will start to really want a “pull” kind of advertising, they’re gonna reject the inundation of push advertisement. The world’s gonna go more to narrowcast for specific markets, and it’s gonna go more toward pull of information rather than unwanted push of information.
Predictor: Atkinson, Bill
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article for Wired magazine, Steve Levy interviews hypercard inventor Bill Atkinson and Andy Hertzfeld about the Internet appliance they are working on for General Magic. Levy writes:”Now that they’ve designed the technology, Bill and Andy love to talk about its implications – how, in effect, General Magic can change the world … ‘Like coupons, for example,’ says Bill. ‘You know, you see these coupons in the newspaper, “10 cents off on this product.” Why do they do those coupons? It’s just because they’re trying to monitor advertising. Everybody spends tremendous bucks on advertising, they want to know which advertising campaigns are working. So they establish a flow of coupons into the store, get a regular base line going, kick in an ad campaign, and see if it goes up or down. Okay? But with a Telescript device you can much more directly tie into customer behavior. Lets say they’ve got an ad on the radio about a car. You press a question mark and there’s a coupon: “Mail me a brochure.” They know exactly which version of the ad was more effective than the other version.” This changes the entire relationship between broadcasters, listeners, and advertisers, I remark. Bill agrees. ‘Radio guys work for advertisers, their business is to deliver customers. But all this “push” advertising is on the way out. For example, when people get cable and stuff, and start seeing TV without advertisements, they don’t go back to it. And people will start to really want a “pull” kind of advertising, they’re gonna reject the inundation of push advertisement. The world’s gonna go more to narrowcast for specific markets, and it’s gonna go more toward pull of information rather than unwanted push of information.'”
Biography:Bill Atkinson was the man behind many of Apple Computer’s biggest innovations in the 1980s and early ’90s. He was honored with a 1994 EFF Pioneer Award for his work as the graphics-toolbox developer for Apple’s Lisa computers and his application HyperCard, the first truly mass-market hypertext product. In the mid-’90s he became chief scientist at General Magic, a company creating software for personal communicators and digital agents. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: April 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Advertising/PR
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Bill and Andy’s Excellent Adventure II
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.04/general.magic_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney