When the information highway makes geography less important, we will see electronic, on-line banks that have no branches – no bricks, no mortar, and low fees. These low-overhead electronic banks will be extremely competitive and transactions will be made through computer appliances. There will be less need for cash because most purchases will be handled with a wallet PC or an electronic “smart card” that will combine the features of a credit card, automatic teller machine card, and checkbook … Financial institutions will be able to specialize; one bank may choose only to make automobile loans, whereas another concentrates on boat loans. Fees will be generated for all of these services, but the fee structure will be based on broad, efficient competition.
Predictor: Gates, Bill
Prediction, in context:In his 1995 book “The Road Ahead,” Microsoft CEO Bill Gates writes: ÒWhen the information highway makes geography less important, we will see electronic, on-line banks that have no branches – no bricks, no mortar, and low fees. These low-overhead electronic banks will be extremely competitive and transactions will be made through computer appliances. There will be less need for cash because most purchases will be handled with a wallet PC or an electronic Ôsmart cardÕ that will combine the features of a credit card, automatic teller machine card, and checkbook. This is all coming at a time when the U.S. banking industry is already consolidating and becoming more efficient. A lot of the interest-rate differential between large and small deposits will disappear. With the communications available on the highway, a new kind of middleman will be able to aggregate small customers efficiently and get them a rate very class to what large depositors are offered. Financial institutions will be able to specialize; one bank may choose only to make automobile loans, whereas another concentrates on boat loans. Fees will be generated for all of these services, but the fee structure will be based on broad, efficient competition.Ó
Biography:Bill Gates, the most influential technology entrepreneur of the late 20th century, was the primary author of the prediction-packed 1995 book “The Road Ahead” and is the founder and CEO of Microsoft Corporation. (Entrepreneur/Business Leader.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Economic structures
Subtopic: E-commerce
Name of publication: The Road Ahead (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Chapter 8: Friction-Free Capitalism
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Page 181
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne