The fully developed information highway will be affordable – almost by definition. An expensive system that connect a few big corporations and wealthy people simply would not be the information highway – it would be the information private road. The network will not attract enough great content to thrive if only the most affluent 10 percent of society choose to avail themselves of it … Advertising income will allow a lot of content to be free. However, most service providers, whether they are rock bands or consulting engineers or book publishers, will still ask that users make a payment. So the information highway will be affordable, if used judiciously, but it won’t be free.
Predictor: Gates, Bill
Prediction, in context:In his 1995 book “The Road Ahead,” Microsoft CEO Bill Gates writes: ”The fully developed information highway will be affordable – almost by definition. An expensive system that connect a few big corporations and wealthy people simply would not be the information highway – it would be the information private road. The network will not attract enough great content to thrive if only the most affluent 10 percent of society choose to avail themselves of it. There are fixed costs to authoring material: so to make them affordable, a large audience is required. Advertising revenue won’t support the highway is a majority of people don’t embrace it. If that is the case, the price for connecting will have to be cut or deployment delayed while the system is redesigned to be more attractive. The information highway is a mass phenomenon, or it is nothing. Eventually the costs of computing and communications will be so low, and the competitive environment so open, that much of the entertainment and information offered on the highway will cost very little. Advertising income will allow a lot of content to be free. However, most service providers, whether they are rock bands or consulting engineers or book publishers, will still ask that users make a payment. So the information highway will be affordable, if used judiciously, but it won’t be free.”
Biography:Bill Gates, the most influential technology entrepreneur of the late 20th century, was the primary author of the prediction-packed 1995 book “The Road Ahead” and is the founder and CEO of Microsoft Corporation. (Entrepreneur/Business Leader.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Cost/Pricing
Name of publication: The Road Ahead (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Chapter 12: Critical Issues
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Page 256
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne