The distribution of atoms is far more complex than bits and requires the force of an enormous company. Moving bits, by contrast, is far simpler and, in principle, precludes the need for these giant corporations. Almost. It was through The New York Times that I came to know and enjoy the writing of the computer and communications business reporter, John Markoff. Without The New York Times, I would never have known of his work. However, now that I do, it would be far easier for me to have an automatic method to collect any new story Markoff writes and drop it into my personalized newspaper or suggested-reading file. I would probably be willing to pay Markoff the proverbial “two cents” for each of his stories … Once somebody is established, the added value of a distributor is less and less in a digital world.
Predictor: Negroponte, Nicholas
Prediction, in context:In his 1995 book “Being Digital,” Nicholas Negroponte writes: ”The distribution of atoms is far more complex than bits and requires the force of an enormous company. Moving bits, by contrast, is far simpler and, in principle, precludes the need for these giant corporations. Almost. It was through The New York Times that I came to know and enjoy the writing of the computer and communications business reporter, John Markoff. Without The New York Times, I would never have known of his work. However, now that I do, it would be far easier for me to have an automatic method to collect any new story Markoff writes and drop it into my personalized newspaper or suggested-reading file. I would probably be willing to pay Markoff the proverbial ‘two cents’ for each of his stories. If one two-hundredth of the 1995 Internet population were to subscribe to this idea and John were to write 100 stories a year (he actually writers between 120 and 140), he would earn $1,000,000 per year, which I am prepared to guess it more than The New York Times pays him. If you think one two-hundredth is too big of a proportion, then wait a short while. The numbers really do work. Once somebody is established, the added value of a distributor is less and less in a digital world.”
Biography:Nicholas Negroponte, a co-founder of MIT’s Media Lab and a popular speaker and writer about technologies of the future, wrote one of the 1990s’ best-selling books about the new future of communications, “Being Digital.” (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: February 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Economic structures
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Being Digital (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Chapter 6: The Bit Business
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 83, 84
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne