In the future digital media there will be more pay-per-view, not just on an all-or-nothing basis, but more like newspapers and magazines, where you share the cost with advertisers. In some cases, the consumer may have an option to receive material without advertising but at a higher cost. In other cases, the advertising will be so personalized that it is indistinguishable from news. It is news … The “prime” of prime time will be its quality in our eyes, not those of some collective and demographic mass of potential buyers of a new luxury car or dishwashing detergent.
Predictor: Negroponte, Nicholas
Prediction, in context:In his 1995 book “Being Digital,” Nicholas Negroponte writes:”In the future digital media there will be more pay-per-view, not just on an all-or-nothing basis, but more like newspapers and magazines, where you share the cost with advertisers. In some cases, the consumer may have an option to receive material without advertising but at a higher cost. In other cases, the advertising will be so personalized that it is indistinguishable from news. It is news … The on-demand model without advertising will make content production more like theatrical Hollywood movies, with much higher risk but much higher reward as well. There will be big busts and wild successes. Make it, and they will come. If they do, great; if they don’t, too bad, but Proctor & Gamble is not necessarily underwriting the risk. In this sense, media companies will be throwing bigger dice tomorrow than they do today. But there will also be smaller players, throwing smaller dice, getting part of the audience share. The ‘prime’ of prime time will be its quality in our eyes, not those of some collective and demographic mass of potential buyers of a new luxury car or dishwashing detergent.”
Biography:Nicholas Negroponte, a co-founder of MIT’s Media Lab and a popular speaker and writer about technologies of the future, wrote one of the 1990s’ best-selling books about the new future of communications, “Being Digital.” (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: February 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Advertising/PR
Name of publication: Being Digital (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Chapter 13: The Post-Information Age
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 170, 171
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne