If Washington forces the phone companies and cable operators to develop supplementary and duplicative networks, most other advanced industrial countries will attain cyberspace democracy – via an interactive multimedia open platform – before America does … East Coast broadcasters and Hollywood glitterati will have a new lease on life: If their one-way video empires win new protection, millions of Americans will be deprived of the tools to help build a new interactive multimedia culture. A contrived competition between phone companies and cable operators will not deliver the two-way, multimedia and more civilized telesociety [Mitch] Kapor and [Jerry] Berman sketch … Creating the conditions for universal access to interactive multimedia will require a fundamental rethinking of government policy.
Predictor: Dyson, Esther
Prediction, in context:The 1995 book “The Information Revolution,” edited by Donald Altschiller, carries a reprint of the Fall 1994, New Perspectives Quarterly article “Magna Carta for the Knowledge Age,” by social critics Esther Dyson, George Gilder, Jay Keyworth and Alvin Toffler. They write: ”If Washington forces the phone companies and cable operators to develop supplementary and duplicative networks, most other advanced industrial countries will attain cyberspace democracy – via an interactive multimedia open platform – before America does, despite this nationÕs technological dominances. Not only that, but the long-time alliance of East Coast broadcasters and Hollywood glitterati will have a new lease on life: If their one-way video empires win new protection, millions of Americans will be deprived of the tools to help build a new interactive multimedia culture. A contrived competition between phone companies and cable operators will not deliver the two-way, multimedia and more civilized telesociety [Mitch] Kapor and [Jerry] Berman sketch. Nor is it enough to simply get the government out of the way. Real issues of antitrust must be addressed, and no sensible framework exists today for addressing them. Creating the conditions for universal access to interactive multimedia will require a fundamental rethinking of government policy.Ó
Biography:Esther Dyson was founding editor of Release 1.0 and a consultant and expert on computing and high-tech applications. She served as the president of EDventure Holdings. She founded the PC Forum, an annual conference and industry event. She had the highest profile of the women of technology in the 1990s. (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Role of Govt./Industry
Name of publication: The Information Revolution (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Magna Carta for the Knowledge Age
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 59, 60
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne